Has The Earth Already Exceeded 1.5 Degrees Celsius of Warming?
by Stephanie Ho Lem, CHCA Director of Living Green
June was a wet and cool month but coming into July, we had a few days of 30+ degree Celsius. Will our summers continue to get warmer?
Last year was recorded as the warmest year. Global average temperature was more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. For the last ten years, we are seeing an alarming pattern in which the warmest years on record have all occurred. According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) there is an 80 percent chance that at least one year between now and 2029, the world will be even hotter. Predictions are that global temperatures will likely continue rising.
Under the Paris Agreement signed in 2015, 195 countries agreed to substantially reduce global greenhouse gas emissions that are to limit global average surface temperature well below 2 degrees Celsius and making efforts to limit it to 1.5 degrees Celsius. Answering the question at the top of this article; yes, we have exceeded 1.5 degrees Celsius, but it hasn’t breached the Paris Agreement’s temperature goal yet. Climate modelling studies indicate the world has entered a 20-year period in which the average temperature anomaly will breach the 1.5 degrees Celsius limit.
Scientific evidence indicates that human activities are causing a rapid increase in global temperatures, leading to a range of environmental and societal problems. We are in a climate crisis, characterized by rising temperatures, more frequent and intense extreme weather events, and disruptions to ecosystems.
Carbon emissions are driving the temperature increase, there are two choices, either reduce the amount of carbon we emit down to zero or we remove carbon from the atmosphere.
Climate science agencies estimate up to ten billion tonnes of CO2 must be removed from the atmosphere annually to keep global warming below the 1.5 degrees Celsius. Okay, how do we visualize ten billion tonnes? 40 billion tons is the amount of CO2 that humans emitted into the atmosphere by burning fossil fuels. “Humans are notoriously bad at visualising large numbers and grasping the difference between orders of magnitude. Knowing the difference in impact can steer our decisions in what we buy, how we buy it and nudge the global economy away from options that we can no longer sustain.” (2025 Lune Climate Ltd.)
We can each do our part by following the greenhouse gas mitigation hierarchy: avoid, reduce, replace, compensate, and neutralize. Simply put, let’s remind ourselves to do the following:
• Recycle your materials.
• Cut down on plastic.
• Cut down on food waste.
• Conserve water.
• Reduce heating and cooling.
• Travel efficiently.
• Plant trees.
• Invest in green projects.
• Improve home energy efficiency.
• Start walking or biking instead of driving.
Each of us can reduce carbon. Carbon reduction and removal is important; we need to do both!
Please note that the content provided is for informational purposes.
Sources:
IPCC Global Warming of 1.5 deg C; UN Climate Action – 1.5 deg C, what it means and why it matters; World Resources Institute-1.5deg C: Understanding World’s Critical Warming Threshold; Future Effects of Global Climate Change; 2025 Lune Climate Ltd.
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